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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161118
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located near the northwestern
coast of Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
much of Central America. Although this system could still become a
tropical depression before it moves inland over southern Belize by
early afternoon, any further development is unlikely due to land
interaction. Once the low moves inland, rapid weakening is expected.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds are possible over
portions of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula today before
diminishing by this evening. In addition, locally heavy rainfall,
which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of
Central America during the next few days.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that was scheduled for this
afternoon has been canceled due the disturbance's proximity to land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 16 Oct 2018 16:16:35 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161101
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua and southern Honduras
is expected to move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean by this
evening, and develop into a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward near or just
offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Tara (EP2/EP222018)

...TARA WEAKENS WHILE MEANDERING SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 16
 the center of Tara was located near 18.6, -104.5
 with movement NNW at 1 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Tara Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS WHILE MEANDERING SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 104.5 West.  Tara is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A very
slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so.  On
the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very close to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, today or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Tara's circulation
interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and the system
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday evening.

Tara remain a tiny tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima, western Jalisco,
and far western Michoacan through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches are possible over Colima and western Jalisco.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Tara Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 161442
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 104.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Tara Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161443
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A surge of moderate to strong southeasterly wind shear early this
morning decapitated Tara, with the original upper-level circulation
now displaced more than 100 nmi to the north or just east of Puerto
Vallarta. Convection waned considerably as a result of the shear and
decoupling of the low- and upper-level circulations, but
thunderstorm activity has made a little bit of comeback over the
past few hours. However, the decoupling likely resulted in
significant weakening of the tiny tropical storm, so the intensity
has been lowered to 40 kt, which is slightly higher than the 35-kt
winds noted in an earlier ScatSat scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/01 kt. Data
from a recent 1035Z SSMI/S overpass suggest that Tara hasn't moved
much, if at all, during the past 12 hours. The first few visible
satellite images also indicate this, and that Tara may just be a
small swirl embedded within a northwest-to-southeast elongated
trough. For now, the system is being maintained as a tiny tropical
cyclone that is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
aforementioned surface trough axis. Almost all of the model guidance
with the exception of the HWRF and NAVGEM models dissipate the
cyclone in 24-36 hours, so the forecast track beyond 24 hours leans
heavily on continuity with the previous advisory track, along with
some input from the HWRF model. However, it is quite possible that
Tara could dissipate sooner than indicated.

The vertical shear is forecast to weaken to less than 10 kt in 12-18
hours, but there may not be enough of a circulation remaining at
that time to take advantage of the improving environment. Intrusions
of dry mid-level air along with some interaction with the
mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico are expected to override
the favorable wind shear environment, causing Tara to weaken to a
depression within 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system by 36 hours. However, weakening could occur more
rapidly than forecast due to the recent loss of vertically
structure.

Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 18.6N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Tara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 161442
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM TARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 10   6(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MANZANILLO     34 20   2(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Tara Graphics

Tropical Storm Tara 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Oct 2018 14:46:10 GMT

Tropical Storm Tara 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Oct 2018 15:21:46 GMT