Forecast Discussion for TAE NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KTAE 220518
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
118 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions through the period with light northerly winds
around 5kts at nearly all sites. Expect winds to shift to the
south-southwest at ECP this afternoon with speeds increasing to
near 10kts. Smoke from the nearby Burnt Mill Creek fire is
unlikely to spread over the terminal through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [820 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Deep layer ridging with dry conditions will be in place through
the period. We will have one more cool night with below seasonal
temperatures as lows dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s by
daybreak Monday. Then, for the next two nights, lows will moderate
into the mid to upper 50s. Highs both days will be in the mid to
upper 80s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The deep layer ridging will move slowly to the east making way for
the next low pressure system. While this system is currently
forecast to be weakening as it translates eastward from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley on Thursday into our area on Friday, we
expect decent rain chances ahead of the surface front Thursday
night through Friday. A drier airmass will return for next
weekend. Highs will be around 80 to the mid 80s. Lows will be
in the lower to mid 60s.


.MARINE...

Winds will be light through mid week, becoming onshore every
afternoon due to a weak sea breeze. Winds and seas will increase
by Thursday night ahead of the next cold front.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Although relative humidity will be fairly low over the next couple
of days, red flag conditions are not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most local rivers are steady or falling at this time. One exception
is the Apalachicola River near Blountstown is rising due to upstream
dam releases and is expected to approach minor flood stage late
tonight and tomorrow. The forecast keeps it just below flood stage.
The next chance for rainfall will be Thursday night into Friday.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  55  87  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  60  80  61  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        83  56  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        83  57  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  54  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  55  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  59  79  61  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion