Forecast Discussion for TAE NWS Office
FXUS62 KTAE 180826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A cold front crosses the region today with chance PoPs decreasing
from northwest to southeast. The area northwest of the Flint River
and I-10 will dry out this afternoon. Otherwise, ample low-level
moisture and limited mixing will promote considerable cloudiness.
Any patchy fog mainly across the Big Bend and east of the Flint
River in Georgia will dissipate by mid-morning. Given the frontal
passage, there will be a wide range in high temperatures, from
the mid-60s over southeast Alabama to the mid 70s in the southeast
Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The aforementioned front will remain south of the area through
Tuesday night, before moving northward through the area as a
warm front on Wednesday. Daily average temperatures a couple
degrees above normal on Tuesday returning to around 10 degrees
above normal on Wednesday. Dry weather tonight with a chance
of showers returning Tuesday through the end of the period,
with the highest probability northwest of the Big Bend. Precip
amounts will be light. Instability increases on Wednesday, and
a slight chance of thunder was included in the forecast during
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The aforementioned warm front will become quasi-stationary north
of the area through the first half of the weekend. This will keep
highest precip chances northwest of the Big Bend through Saturday,
and even a slight chance of thunder. A cold front is progged to
approach the area on Sunday and slowly move through the region
into Monday. There is still considerable uncertainty at this point
in the forecast regarding the timing and speed of the front, but
this would be our next chance of more appreciable precipitation.
Until the passage of the front, daily average temperatures will
likely be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages, along with
uncomfortable humidity levels.


[Through 06Z Tuesday]

LIFR ceilings in place at ECP and TLH, IFR at DHN, and MVFR at
ABY and VLD at the beginning of the TAF period. Expect ceilings
at TLH to temporarily become IFR late tonight, w/ temporary MVFR
at DHN. Expect ABY to maintain MVFR tonight, while VLD lowers to
IFR. A cold front will sweep across the terminals in the 10-15Z
time frame, with southerly winds veering to the north-northwest.
Expect gradual improvement in ceilings to MVFR mid-late morning,
with VFR this afternoon.



Marine Dense fog Advisory for the coastal waters out to around 20
nautical miles through this morning. The fog will begin to dissipate
late this morning with the passage of a cold front. A Small Craft
Advisory goes into effect today for the coastal waters to the west
of Apalachicola, where northeast winds will increase to around 20
to 25 knots and continue through Tuesday. Seas will increase up
to around 5 feet with occasional seas up to around 7 feet in the
advisory area. Winds and seas will begin to decrease on Wednesday.



Outside of low dispersions over the Florida Big Bend today, a
moist weather pattern will remain in place over the next several
days, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.
Patchy fog is possible this morning over the Florida Big Bend and
east of the Flint River in Georgia.



Strong ridging will force storm systems over the next few days to
the north of the region. This will keep any threat for locally
heavy rain well to the north of our region over the Tennessee
River Valley. While the bulk of this heavy rain over the next
several days should miss the Chattahoochee River across Nrn
Georgia, some rainfall into this basin could lead to elevated
river levels within our portion of the Chattahoochee (and
Apalachicola River) in the next few days.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   71  56  70  59  77 /  50  10  20  20  30
Panama City   67  57  69  63  73 /  40  20  20   0  20
Dothan        61  52  59  55  76 /  40  10  40  30  30
Albany        63  52  58  53  74 /  50  10  30  40  40
Valdosta      71  54  66  57  78 /  50  10  20  30  30
Cross City    78  59  74  61  79 /  40  20  10  20  20
Apalachicola  70  57  67  62  71 /  40  20  10   0  20


GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM CST Tuesday for
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM.




NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion